TI News: An information service from Office of Travel & Tourism Industries (OTTI)

December 07, 2012

U.S. COMMERCE DEPARTMENT FORECASTS CONTINUED STRONG GROWTH FOR INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL TO THE UNITED STATES - 2012-2017

The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) projects international travel to the United States will continue experiencing strong growth through 2017, based on the Office of Travel & Tourism Industries 2012 Fall Travel Forecast.

Visitor volume in 2012 is expected to finish at plus 6 percent and reach 66.48 million visitors who stay one or more nights in the United States. This growth would build on the 4.9 percent increase in arrivals in 2011, which resulted in a record 62.7 million visitors.

According to the current forecast, the United States would see 3.6 percent to 4.3 percent annual growth rates in visitor volume over the 2013-2017 timeframe. By 2017 this growth would produce 80.48 million visitors, a 28 percent increase and nearly 18 million additional visitors compared to 2011.

All world regions are forecast to grow over the period, ranging from a low for Central America (+1%), to a high for Asia (+64%), South America (+60%), and the Middle East (+55%). Countries with the largest forecasted total growth percentages are China (+259%), Brazil (+83%), Argentina (+67%), Russian Federation (+55%), and South Korea (+51%). Jamaica is the only top 40 visitor origin country forecast to decline from 2011 through 2017.

The North America world region will account for half (42%) of the total visitor growth of 17.8 million visitors by 2017. Asia (26% of total growth), South America (13%), and Western Europe (12%) account for the bulk of the remaining 52% of total growth in visitor volume forecast in 2017 compared to 2011 actual volume.

Six countries are expected to account for 72 percent of the projected growth from 2011 through 2017, including Canada (29%), China (16%), Mexico (13%), Brazil (7%), United Kingdom (4%), and Japan (4%). Although China and Brazil continue to get the bulk of media attention because of their consistent and very high growth rates, the traditional top origin countries will dictate the ultimate accuracy of the forecast. In fact, the expected growth from Canada is larger than the expected total visitor volume for any other country in 2017, except Mexico.

The U.S. travel forecast was prepared by research staff in the Department of Commerce/Office of Travel & Tourism Industries using economic / demographic / social factors, DOC historical visitation trends, input from the DOC Foreign Commercial Service staff abroad, and numerous other miscellaneous sources. The DOC Travel Forecast is updated in May and October each year.

Click here for more information.

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April 23, 2012

U.S. COMMERCE DEPARTMENT FORECASTS GROWTH IN INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL TO THE UNITED STATES THROUGH 2016

Los Angeles - U.S. Commerce Secretary John Bryson today announced that the United States can expect 4-5 percent average annual growth in tourism over the next five years, and that 65.4 million foreign travelers are projected to visit the United States in 2012 alone. The spring 2012 Travel and Tourism Forecast, released semiannually by the U.S. Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration (ITA), predicts continued strong growth through 2016 following two consecutive visitor volume records set in 2010 and 2011. Bryson announced the Forecast at the U.S. Travel Association’s International Pow Wow annual event in Los Angeles, which draws more than 5,000 people from 70 countries from the travel and tourism industry.

“Growth in travel and tourism – which impacts nearly every state and community across America – will help support millions of American jobs and achieve the President’s National Export Initiative goal of doubling U.S. exports by the end of 2014,” Bryson said. “Today’s forecast is a positive sign that the travel and tourism industry – our number-one service export – is growing stronger. We must keep up efforts to support the industry and do everything we can to make the United States more welcoming to international visitors.”

Tourists from all world regions are forecast to grow over the five year period, ranging from a low for the Caribbean (+9 percent), to a high for Asia (+49 percent), South America (+47 percent), and Africa (+47 percent). All but three of the top-40 visitor origin countries are forecast to grow from 2011 through 2016. Countries with the largest total growth percentages are China (+198 percent), Brazil (+70 percent), Argentina (+46 percent), Australia (+45 percent), Korea (+35 percent), and Venezuela (+35 percent).

The North America world region is forecast to account for the largest proportion of the total visitor growth of 14 million visitors (42 percent). Asia (25 percent), Western Europe (11 percent), and South America (13 percent) are expected to account for the bulk of the remaining 58 percent of total growth in visitor volume forecast in 2016 compared to 2011 actual volume. The top countries contributing to this total growth in 2016 are Canada (4.47 million additional visitors), China (2.16 million), Mexico (1.54 million), Brazil (1.06 million), and Australia (463 thousand).

Commerce recently released data showing that 62 million international visitors traveled to the U.S. in 2011, generating a record $153 billion in receipts and a $43 billion trade surplus. International and domestic tourism spending increased 8.1 percent, supporting an additional 103,000 jobs for a total of 7.6 million Americans employed in travel and tourism industries or in industries that support them. Further, 1.2 million jobs are supported directly or indirectly by international traveler spending within the United States and on U.S. carriers.

For more information, visit the Office of Travel and Tourism forecast page on the website: http://www.tinet.ita.doc.gov/view/f-2000-99-001/index.html

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2011 National Ranks - Overseas*

(Rank Order 2011) Visitor Origin Country

(1) UK

3,840,000 visitors in 2011 (unchanged)

estimated to increase 0% in 2012

estimated to increase 1% in 2013

estimated to increase 2% in 2014

(3) GERMANY

1,820,000 visitors in 2011 (up 6%)

estimated to increase 4% in 2012

estimated to increase 3% in 2013

estimated to increase 2% in 2014

(5) FRANCE

1,500,000 visitors in 2011 (up 12%)

estimated to increase 3% in 2012

estimated to increase 3% in 2013

estimated to increase 3% in 2014

(8) AUSTRALIA

1,037,000 visitors in 2011 (up 15%)

estimated to increase 9% in 2012

estimated to increase 8% in 2013

estimated to increase 8% in 2014

(9) ITALY

891,000 visitors in 2011 (up 6%)

estimated to increase 1% in 2012

estimated to increase 1% in 2013

estimated to increase 2% in 2014

(12) NETHERLANDS

601,000 visitors in 2011 (up 5%)

estimated to increase 3% in 2012

estimated to increase 3% in 2013

estimated to increase 2% in 2014

(17) SWEDEN

438,000 visitors in 2011 (up 18%)

estimated to increase 7% in 2012

estimated to increase 5% in 2013

estimated to increase 4% in 2014

(21) DENMARK

274,000 visitors in 2011 (up 6%)

estimated to increase 5% in 2012

estimated to increase 4% in 2013

estimated ot increase 2% in 2014

(23) NORWAY

249,000 visitors in 2011 (up 13%)

estimated to increase 10% in 2012

estimated to increase 7% in 2013

estimated to increase 5% in 2014

 

2010 saw significant gains in US visitation from most of RMI's markets.  The UK, Germany, France, Australia and Italy ranked in the top ten for 2010 overseas visitation numbers to the US. These figures will be updated every spring and fall.

An information service from Office of Travel & Tourism Industries (OTTI)

October 27, 2011

NEW TRAVEL AND TOURISM FORECAST PROJECTS STRONG GROWTH FOR INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS THROUGH 2016

Visitors from China, Brazil, and Australia projected to increase, boosting U.S. tourism exports

WASHINGTON - International visitor arrivals to the United States are expected to grow by 5 to 6 percent annually during the next five years. The U.S. Department of Commerce today released its fall travel and tourism forecast and projects a record 64 million international travelers to spend $152 billion during their stays in 2011, an increase of 13 percent from 2010.

“Travel and tourism is the leading export service industry,” said Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade Francisco Sánchez. “More than one million Americans owe their jobs to a strong travel and tourism sector. This record-breaking forecasted growth in travel exports will help put more Americans to work.”

Year-to-date, the travel and tourism trade surplus is up 31 percent from 2010, putting it on track to set a record trade surplus of $41 billion. Through July 2011, 35.2 million international visitors have flocked to the United States, up five percent compared to the same period in 2010.

This report updates an earlier forecast released in May 2011. That report predicted international arrivals to grow by 6-8 percent annually through 2016. The revision reflects a downward reassessment of key arrival markets.

In the long-term, the number of travelers from all world regions are forecast to grow, ranging from a high for Oceania (+85 percent) and South America (+77 percent), to a low for the Caribbean (+13 percent). Countries with the largest total growth rates are China (+274 percent), Brazil (+135 percent), the Russian Federation (+131 percent), Australia (+94 percent), and Argentina (+70 percent).

Travel and tourism is a $1.3 trillion sector of the U.S. economy, supporting 7.8 million American jobs. In 2010, the United States had a surplus of nearly $32 billion in travel and tourism, an increase of 50 percent from 2009. Purchases of goods and services by international visitors to the United States are considered an export as they contribute to the overall economy.

For additional information on the forecast for travel to the United States for 2011-2016, detailing the volume and percent change for all world regions and the top 40 countries, please visit http://www.tinet.ita.doc.gov/outreachpages/inbound.general_information.inbound_overview.html

2010 National Ranks - Overseas*

(Rank Order 2010) Visitor Origin Country

(1) UK
3,851,000 visitors in 2010 (down 1%)
estimated to increase 1% in 2011
estimated to increase 2% in 2012
estimated to increase 3% in 2013
(3) GERMANY
1,726,000 visitors in 2010 (up 2%)
estimated to increase 7% in 2011
estimated to increase 3% in 2012
estimated to increase 4% in 2013
(4) FRANCE
1,342,000 visitors in 2010 (up 11%)
estimated to increase 12% in 2011
estimated to increase 6% in 2012
estimated to increase 6% in 2013
(7) AUSTRALIA
904,000 visitors in 2010 (up 25%)
estimated to increase 18% in 2011
estimated to increase 12% in 2012
estimated to increase 13% in 2013
(8) ITALY
838,000 visitors in 2010 (up 11%)
estimated to increase 9% in 2011
estimated to increase 3% in 2012
estimated to increase 3% in 2013
(12) NETHERLANDS
570,000 visitors in 2010 (up 4%)
estimated to increase 6% in 2011
estimated to increase 3% in 2012
estimated to increase 3% in 2013
(16) SWITZERLAND
391,000 visitors in 2010 (up 10%)
estimated to increase 23% in 2011
estimated to increase 8% in 2012
estimated to increase 5% in 2013
(17) SWEDEN
372,000 visitors in 2010 (up 15%)
estimated to increase 21% in 2011
estimated to increase 8% in 2012
estimated to increase 6% in 2013
(18) IRELAND
360,000 visitors in 2010 (down 12%)
estimated to decrease 3% in 2011
estimated to increase 1% in 2012
estimated to increase 1% in 2013
(21) DENMARK
259,000 visitors in 2010 (up 5%)
estimated to increase 6% in 2011
estimated to increase 3% in 2012
estimated to increase 2% in 2013
(22) BELGIUM
255,000 visitors in 2010 (up 4%)
estimated to increase 3% in 2011
estimated to increase 2% in 2012
estimated to increase 2% in 2013
(25) NORWAY
221,000 visitors in 2010 (up 14%)
estimated to increase 13% in 2011
estimated to increase 6% in 2012
estimated to increase 6% in 2013
(30) NEW ZEALAND
175,000 visitors in 2010 (up 33%)
estimated to increase 15% in 2011
estimated to increase 12% in 2012
estimated to increase 5% in 2013
(33) AUSTRIA
168,000 visitors in 2010 (up 4%)
estimated to increase 5% in 2011
estimated to increase 2% in 2012
estimated to increase 3% in 2013